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Dollar's Major Test
- Recent upward trend has met the downward trend which began early of this year
- Dollar strength lies with 1)hawkish Fed and 2)tax reform expectation
- That said, going forward, above two key variables should determine whether downward trend can be defeated
- If that's the case prepare for a massive unwind of dollar shorts
- That's because commitment of trade report shows DXY short and EUR, CAD, GBP long all very crowded
- Of course, the caveat here is that the COT report is just a tip of an iceberg when measuring FX trades
- But all-in-all it is almost safe to say when the trend is reversed more people than few would head for exit
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